The death of Russian President Vladimir Putin would not end the war in Ukraine, warns Marcus Matthias Keupp, one of Germany’s top military analysts. According to Keupp, the roots of the conflict run far deeper than one individual, and Russia’s threat to the region would persist regardless of Putin’s fate.
In an interview published in Kurier’s Sunday edition, Keupp stated: “Putin is just one among many who represent an authoritarian, militant, and nationalist regime.”
Keupp, a lecturer at the military academy of ETH in Vienna, emphasized that the current power structure in Russia extends beyond a single leader. Even in Putin’s absence, he believes the war effort would continue—possibly through different means, but with the same intentions.
A “Perpetual Bloody Border” Ahead for Ukraine
Keupp painted a grim picture of Ukraine’s long-term outlook, suggesting the country will face a constant state of tension and insecurity.
“It will remain a perpetual bloody border,” he predicted, referring to the likelihood of a prolonged, lower-intensity form of Russian aggression.
He also warned that Moscow’s ambitions go beyond military confrontation. Political influence is another key tool in Russia’s strategy.
“Putin already enjoys the support of Hungarian and Slovak leaders, and he has set the same goal for Austria and Germany,” Keupp cautioned.
In his view, one of Russia’s main strategic aims is to empower political forces across Europe that share and promote Moscow’s agenda.
“The goal is to support political movements that represent his views and back his program,” he explained.
Criticism of the EU’s Military Response
Keupp was also critical of the European Union’s rearmament efforts, arguing that they lack true political will and follow-through.
“You can buy a gun, but you also have to be willing to shoot it,” he said bluntly, underlining what he sees as a disconnect between military spending and political resolve.
To ensure peace and prevent further Russian expansion, Keupp advocates for a decisive and robust military strategy.
He calls for the “maximization” of military support to Ukraine, insisting that only firm action can contain Russia and secure long-term stability in Europe.